The diamond trade saw a modest recovery in September, with the 1-carat RAPI index rising 0.46%. This growth, however, was driven by smaller diamonds, as 0.30-carat and 0.50-carat stones saw increases of 2.0% and 2.5%, respectively. Prices for 1.00 to 1.49 carat diamonds in D-J color moved up slightly, with the average change across D-F and G-J in IF-VVS and VS categories showing a positive 0.3% shift, though at a slower pace than the 0.7% gain recorded in August.
Larger diamonds, on the other hand, experienced a slight decline, with the 3-carat segment dropping 0.4%. This trend suggests a focus on retail restocking rather than speculative buying, as smaller, calibrated stones continue to outperform their larger counterparts.
Natural vs. Lab-Grown Diamonds: A Persistent Price Gap
The price difference between natural and lab-grown diamonds remains significant. As of October 8, a 1-carat natural round diamond in G-H-I color and VS1-SI1 clarity had a fair market price of $3,590, while its lab-grown counterpart was priced at $690. This disparity, with natural stones trading at roughly five times the price of lab-grown equivalents, poses a challenge for retailers when explaining price differences to consumers.
Despite the September uptick, natural diamond prices are still down 14.1% year-to-date. A 1-carat G-H VS1-VS2 diamond, for instance, has decreased from $4,715 on January 1 to $4,049 on October 8. This decline shows that the recent stabilization is occurring from a lower baseline rather than signaling a full recovery.
India’s Jewelry Market Outshines Global Trends
India’s jewelry market is experiencing robust growth, with Titan Company reporting a 21% increase in jewelry segment revenue for the quarter ending September 30. Additionally, Titan’s consolidated sales, including subsidiaries, advanced 25% during the same period. This growth is particularly notable when compared to the global natural-diamond market, which remains 14.1% below its January level, highlighting the stark divergence in regional demand.
For suppliers, this regional disparity is a critical factor in fourth-quarter planning. As the US show calendar intensifies, buyers will look to fall trade events and the luxury earnings cycle for insights into holiday orders. The contrast between India’s strong consumer demand and the softer Western market will influence allocation strategies.
The upcoming De Beers Sight 9, scheduled for October 26-30, will provide further insight into rough diamond demand. The event will test whether the stabilization in polished diamond prices translates into increased rough demand or if sightholders remain cautious due to thin margins, particularly at the larger end of the market.
